05.02.2022

1. A strengthening of the multipolar world is very likely in 2022, as the policies of Russia and China will become increasingly clear. Both nations will continue to strengthen their ties. Therefore, it is very likely that a club of multipolar powers will emerge around these two actors (while countries that still recognize the legitimacy of US unipolarity will organize themselves around the “Democratic League”). In addition, "Great Spaces" like the EU, India or Islamic countries will also assert their sovereignty. However, it is very likely that tripolarity will remain the norm, as neither India nor the EU are able to become autonomous subjects for many reasons: liberal elites, lack of self-awareness, direct influence from globalist powers, lack of an idea of unit, etc.
2. The outbreak of a Third World War will remain a possibility, especially as the US will continue to refuse to renounce the position of hegemony it held from 1945 to 1991. The primacy of the United States was reasserted after the collapse of the USSR, receiving the name of " unipolar moment" (1991-2000), which has remained more or less unshakable until today. Neoconservatives aspired to make this dominance absolute during the 21st century (New American Century Project). However, the little legitimacy Biden has within the United States and the deep division that exists in American society make it clear that at this point old Joe has little authority to launch a nuclear war. Instead, Putin is counting on her. Nuclear war is a (perhaps necessary) card to coerce the United States and preserve the peace.
3. Either way, it's important to keep in mind that Biden will find himself in a pretty precarious position in 2022 as he has a very low approval rating and his foreign and domestic policies are full of contradictions, and the Senate elections are looming. , which will happen in the middle of his term. Thanks to this, it is likely that Republicans and, above all, former President Trump will regain popularity, making Trumpism increasingly relevant. However, Biden will likely be forced into desperate action to prevent his term from collapsing, and a direct confrontation with Russia over sovereignty over the Black Sea and eastern Ukraine makes sense here. Biden does not have enough charisma to carry out an action of such magnitude, but it cannot be ruled out that he will do something similar to save dying globalism.
4. The United States will continue to use regional tensions to its advantage, such as the one between Pakistan and India. However, the fact that both countries belong to the SCO can help to mitigate these tensions. Here Russia will play an important diplomatic role as it maintains good relations with India and is improving its relations with Pakistan.
5. China will continue to consolidate its influence through its Belt and Road project and expand its strategic partnership with Russia. So it is quite possible that these projects will stop revolving around China and become part of the continental strategy Putin has proposed for Greater Eurasia.
6. Russia will continue to strengthen its sovereignty, but the restoration of its imperial essence can only be achieved through a defensive war: if there are provocations against us, we will have to respond. If a conflict breaks out in Ukraine, Russia will go on the offensive and Ukraine, as an independent entity and platform of globalism, will disappear one way or another. If this happens, it is possible that a new state will emerge in the territories inhabited by the East Slavs, and finally the reunification of the big Russians, the little Russians and the White Russians will be achieved again.
7. The future of Nord Stream 2 will remain uncertain, especially as Germany is ruled by a pro-US globalist coalition led by the Greens, although the German centre-left is also pro-US and has strong ties to Georges Soros. This leads us to the conclusion that Germany will enter into a series of political struggles, as the consensus between elites and society that Schroeder (center-left) and Merkel (center-right) had forged will disappear.
8. Political Islam will no longer be relevant and other projects and solutions to Middle East problems will begin to emerge. However, it is unlikely that such projects will be consolidated in the near future.
9. The Maghreb will be the epicenter of several regional conflicts, especially between Algeria and Morocco or between Morocco and the Polisario Front in Western Sahara. In addition, several other local clashes threaten African Muslim populations (Mali, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Chad, etc.). Iraq's future remains uncertain, especially as US troops are expected to withdraw this year. All of this could increase tensions between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish populations or spark wars within all these groups.
10. Iran will continue to be a very stable country, as the rule of the ayatollahs – contrary to what western propaganda promotes – is quite solid.
11. Turkey will continue to be independent and autonomous as long as Erdogan is in power, the latter will likely begin to face many internal challenges.
12. France is within the EU the country that will undergo the most changes, as Eric Zemmour has the possibility of becoming president. Zemmour is a supporter of Gaulism and continentalism, not to mention that he has anti-globalist and anti-American positions. France currently sees three right-wing candidates – Zemmour, Marine Le Pen and Republican Valérie Pécresse – facing Macron, these candidates vying with each other for the French “anti-Macronist” vote. If the Gaullist Zemmour or Marine Le Pen become presidents, then the EU as a whole (and especially Italy and Germany) will start to become an independent pole (especially now that Britain is no longer part of Europe).