Fukuyama Admitted: The Unipolar World Has Collapsed
Francis Fukuyama recently wrote a fairly objective and balanced article about the end of American hegemony.
Fukuyama in the early 90s was clearly in a hurry to declare the worldwide victory of liberalism and the end of history. He later corrected his position. In some personal conversations with him, I became convinced that he understands many world processes quite realistically and is able to admit mistakes in his forecasts – a rare feature among narcissistic political scientists who make mistakes every day and that only makes them even more arrogant.
So, Fukuyama says the following. The withdrawal from Afghanistan is not just the cause of the collapse of American hegemony, but only the final point. This hegemony began to disintegrate 10 years ago, when it became clear that the American strategy of the early 2000s in the Middle East had failed, and the financial crisis undermined confidence in the stability of the American economy.
But the most terrible thing for the United States in recent years has been a deep split in society over domestic politics, and above all in relation to Trump. This time, not only did the peaceful transfer of power from Republicans to Democrats fail, but the polarization of Trump’s supporters and opponents put the country on the brink of civil war. Therefore, according to Fukuyama, what is terrible is not the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, which was high time to do, but the situation in which this happened against the background of internal political processes in the United States.
Biden, who was not originally considered the legitimate president by the Republicans, now looks like a complete loser and a helpless idiot. Added to this is his criticism from the neocons, who had high hopes for Biden, and the British allies. Today, he is even perceived by his supporters as an old man in dementia, who has everything falling out of his hands – like Afghans from the landing gear of American planes.
Fukuyama states that the United States is no longer the hegemon of world politics. Multipolarity is an accomplished fact.
However, Fukuyama suggests not over-exaggerating. The United States is still the most powerful world power. But from now on, she will have to look for allies and reckon with other forces.
It is worth paying attention to what Fukuyama advises the Biden administration to do in foreign policy. You can imagine the picture like this: from 1989 to 2008, the unipolar world went along an ascending arc from the bipolar one, and now a decline has begun from unipolarity to multipolarity.
And now the main opponents for the West are not so much Islamic extremists (although Fukuyama himself, at the time of the rise of unipolarity, formulated a rather idiotic thesis about Islam-fascism as the main enemy), but the new poles Russia and China. In the fight against them – that is, with us! – Fukuyama and encourages focus. Everything returns to square one, but in new conditions and new proportions.
And, therefore, Fukuyama makes it clear, without fully agreeing, it is necessary to return to the use of the practice of inciting Islamic radicals against Russia and China. Therefore, he does not consider the very fact of leaving Afghanistan a great tragedy. This frees Washington’s hands to turn the aggression of the Russian-banned Taliban against Russia and China.
Militant Pashtuns are unlikely to be truly interested in state-building. This is not part of their historical tasks. Pashtuns are a people of warriors. Almost no one managed to subdue them, except for a short while. By the way, our Russian Cossacks are vaguely reminiscent of this: military campaigns, attacks, rapid advances and retreats, the ideal use of the landscape for guerrilla warfare – this is what life is like for Russian Cossacks. War as a calling. Peaceful work for others.
Pashtuns are Afghan Cossacks, only multiplied by a million. And if so, what kind of statehood … What else.
This is what Fukuyama and, apparently, Biden are counting on. If it succeeds again, as in the era of a bipolar world, to set Islamic radicals against Russia and China, the United States will get some more time for historical existence.
They hope to rebuild during this time, consolidate their positions and lick their wounds.
The conclusion is simple: the main thing for Russia is to prevent this from happening. And here – since we are talking about life and death – all means are good. If Moscow and Beijing develop an effective strategy in relation to the new reality of Afghanistan and the Islamic world as a whole, we can not only secure our interests but also make the collapse of Western hegemony irreversible.
Of course, Fukuyama himself does not write about this, hoping that we will not carefully read his text addressed to the strategists of the White House. But we read it carefully enough. And we agree with him: the West is crumbling. So, push what’s falling. And Fukuyama himself suggested some weak points.